Evaluasi Pengaruh Parameter Alpha terhadap Akurasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing pada Data Persediaan Barang Retail

Zuli Gultom; Ika Windiarti; Muhammad Andika Wardana

doi:10.70340/jirsi.v5i2.430

Penulis

Zuli Gultom Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara
Ika Windiarti Universias Muhammadiyah Palangkaraya
Muhammad Andika Wardana Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70340/jirsi.v5i2.430

Kata Kunci:

Single Exponential Smoothing, parameter alpha, forecasting accuracy, inventory forecasting, time series data

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi pengaruh parameter alpha terhadap tingkat akurasi metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) pada data persediaan barang retail. Evaluasi dilakukan menggunakan nilai error MAD, MSE, dan MAPE. Penelitian menggunakan data persediaan barang retail Toko Murni periode Januari 2025 hingga Februari 2026 yang terdiri dari data beras putih, minyak makan, tepung roti, dan kecap manis bango 60 ml. Proses evaluasi dilakukan menggunakan variasi nilai alpha 0.1 hingga 0.9. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa nilai alpha rendah memberikan tingkat akurasi prediksi yang lebih baik dibandingkan nilai alpha tinggi. Pada data beras putih, penggunaan alpha 0.1 menghasilkan nilai MAD 75.41, MSE 7167.35, dan MAPE 16.86 dengan hasil prediksi sebesar 460.43. Pada minyak makan, alpha 0.1 menghasilkan nilai prediksi 75.66 dengan MAPE 18.6, sedangkan pada kecap manis bango 60 ml menghasilkan prediksi 80.51 dengan MAPE 12.79. Sementara itu, pada data tepung roti, nilai alpha optimal diperoleh pada alpha 0.2 dengan hasil prediksi sebesar 67.19 dan MAPE 19.71.

Unduhan

Data unduhan belum tersedia.

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